Streaks and fast matches in Armored Warfare
Are matches in Armored Warfare too fast?
Have you noticed matches in Armored Warfare are over sooner than in World of Tanks? I’m not sure I really have, nor do I think if the difference is only a minute or so that I would really think it is much of a deal. From the forums, though:
Well… average World of Tanks match duration is 6-7 minutes (depending on tier), so given the fact the AW vehicles are faster on average and it takes shorter time for them to engage the enemy (plus given the average time of destroying enemy vehicle), 5 minute matches aren’t really that unexpected. The problem with longer matches (on average) is that while all of us enjoy a long, thrilling fight once in a while, protracted matches in the long run are either boring (if nothing happens) or very tiring (if they are packed with action). ~SilentStalker, Content Manager
I suppose if only 1 out of every 1,000 battles in Armored Warfare was one of those really close and fun games where it comes down to the last second I’d pick up on the fact it was different. But I’ve had those types of games and can’t really say if I’ve experienced them more or less than in World of Tanks. My perception is probably less, but that is skewed by I know that is the prevailing belief out there.
For the general playing population out there I think SilentStalker may be correct in assuming they’d grow tired of long, extended matches. I know World of Warships feels like a lot longer of a game to me and I miss the shorter battle duration of the tank games. But the strategic and board game player in me personally believes games of an extended nature coming down to the last minute are a lot of fun and more would be nice.
Fix MM, I’ve lost X many games in a row!!!!
I seriously think this has to be a troll comment whenever I see it. If somebody has lost so many battles and truly believes it is the fault of matchmaking, I can’t really comprehend what they are suggesting. If this describes you don’t take offense, just help me understand. In real life, when looking at a sequence of related events to determine their cause, the first thing I’d explore is what is the common element between the events. In this case, a player saying matchmaking is broken because they lost X many games in a row, the only common element is the player themselves!!! So either they are performing poorly for some reason that day, or it is just a streak.
Some players seem to think it is the matchmaker doing this on purpose. They feel games such as Armored Warfare track your progress and pits them against teams to thwart or enhance their chances? Isn’t this a bit narcissistic? The number of attributes matchmaking systems already have to take into account causes a delay in creating matches. Having to analyze every player’s recent win or loss streak, and then appropriately match them up in a battle of 30 players would add a lot of unnecessary overhead and delay in starting battles. Or do people really believe matchmaker takes into account your recent streaks and my view this would break matchmaking queue times is naive?
Streaks in Armored Warfare
As for the streaks, I completely understand feeling lost when you get on the bad end of a streak. Realize though that in a game where most players are going to hover within a few percents of 50% win/loss rate that the distribution of wins and losses is going to more closely follow a random coin toss. Disagree? Player skill influences the game? Of course, it does. But this isn’t a game where some players are 90% wr and others 10%. The majority of players are likely going to fall between 40-60% in win rates. I’d actually guess a 40% or 60% win rate player is at least two standard deviations away from the average. In other words, Over 95% of the player base is hovering fairly close to 50%.
You may discount using a coin toss as an analogy because ‘skill’ is involved in Armored Warfare, but in reality when looking at all the games being played, the distributions would be similar. Your next game may not follow the statistical chances of a coin toss…too much is within your own hands or the mercy of other factors for that. But across thousands of games a player’s win rate is going to hover within the range described above. If you track your win and loss streaks and compare it to the distribution pattern of coin tosses you will find similar results, perhaps skewed up or down a bit based on your skill.
You can help determine the outcome of any given match, but you can’t overcome the random factor over the course of a large set of games.
So for a 50% player over the course of 1,000 games it would be very odd to not have winning or losing streaks of 5 or more. To show this, I jumped on google and searched for a coin toss simulator. The very first one I tried yielded this:
Look at those streaks!!!! Counting the red tails (T) as losses, I see a streak of 7 losses in a row and a 1-9 record in the second row during perhaps a 10 game night. There are other streaks of course too. I am not saying you don’t control your games, performance or destiny. I am saying that no matter what you do, looking back, you can’t expect to have an even pattern distribution of your wins and losses. So to blame your streaks on “bad teams” or “matchmaker hates me” or your winning streaks on “man, I am on fire tonight, I am a tank god!” isn’t really realistic.
Perhaps you are tired and playing poorly so it may cause a bit more losses for you, or perhaps you are just “on” tonight and you will get a few more wins. In the long haul, though, the streaks are also just going to happen regardless of you what you do. You may be able to influence your next match, but statistically all of your matches together will follow a random distribution. Don’t be that guy that posts you have won 10 in a row and then got on 5 terrible teams and complain. Or do you really expect to win 90% of your matches?
Many are going to disagree with the analogy of a coin toss experiment mimicking winning and losing streaks in a game like Armored Warfare. If you are one of them you have an uphill battle though to explain why it isn’t relevant when looking at the aggregate of thousands of a player’s personal games or millions of games when looking at the entire player base. So basically, don’t fall for the Gambler’s Fallacy and believe the streaks mean anything, like rigged matchmaking. Streaks are simply streaks and they are going to happen.
As for battle duration….does Armored Warfare have a problem with matches ending too soon or not lasting long enough? Anecdotally it doesn’t seem like it to me, but I’ll try to pay more attention to see if my opinion changes.